ESDM Archives - Oirtas Insight

October 25, 2026 | Energy economics, fuel distribution and public finance | Indonesia

Indonesia’s new Pengawal Energi programme targets 3,679 fuel stations, establishing an oversight footprint whose effectiveness will depend on deployment and follow-up enforcement.
A separate Semarang investigation identified a 382-kilolitre documentary discrepancy. The case supports stronger transaction reconciliation, without establishing a national leakage rate.
Redirecting improperly purchased fuel to eligible consumers can improve access without reducing total government-supported sales or public expenditure.
Fuel monitoring must distinguish diversion from delivery bottlenecks. Enforcement cannot independently resolve shortages caused by insufficient transport or depot capacity.
Policymakers should assess verified irregular volumes, legitimate customer access and net fiscal effects separately before expanding the programme.

24 October 2026 | Sector: Oil and Gas, Power | Country: Indonesia

Indonesia cut pipeline gas exports to Singapore by 31 BBTUD from 24 October 2026, equal to roughly 15% of the 200 MMSCFD pipeline flow reported in 2025.
The diverted gas goes mainly to power generation in Batam. It does little for the shortage facing industry in West Java, where demand exceeds regulated-price supply by about 1,100 MMSCFD.
The cut came three days after statements by the President and the Energy Minister linking energy exports to national “survival” and to countries that “disrespect” Indonesia, during a regional dispute over forest fire haze.
Singapore’s exposure is manageable, since pipeline gas from Malaysia and Indonesia supplies about 40% of its gas and no single country supplies more than 30%.
The main investor risk lies upstream. Mixing export policy with diplomacy raises uncertainty for gas projects that depend on export markets to justify investment.

Oirtas Insight